The History Behind GERS

The man behind it was Ian Lang, Baron Lang of Monkton. Born 1940, MP for Galloway 1979-1997, Secretary of State for Scotland 1990-1995, then President of the Board of Trade 1995-1997. Made a life peer in 1997.

In 1992 there was growing support for a Scottish Assembly. Oil price was low, about $15-20 a barrel. The Scottish Office wanted to show Scotland was a net beneficiary of the UK.

A leaked internal memo from Lang at the time said:

"I judge that it is just what is needed at present in our campaign to maintain the initiative and undermine the other parties."

In other words, GERS was created to win a political argument against devolution.

Since devolution in 1999 it has been compiled by economists in the Office of the Chief Economic Adviser of the Scottish Government, using ONS and HM Treasury data. It is now Accredited Official Statistics, produced independently of Ministers.

It has been used by both sides. In 2013 the SNP Government used GERS in Scotland's Future White Paper to argue Scotland paid more tax per head. From 2015 as oil crashed, Unionists quoted it as proof Scotland can't afford independence.

Official purpose - Scottish Government says to "estimate a set of public sector finance statistics for Scotland through detailed analysis of official UK and Scottish Government finance data."

It shows where Scotland is today INSIDE the UK. Not where it could be.

What it is NOT for:

1. It is NOT Holyrood's budget. Holyrood budget is about £60bn. GERS is £117.6bn because it includes pensions, welfare, defence, debt interest controlled by Westminster. 2. It is NOT a guide to an independent Scotland. GERS 2024-25 itself says it reflects being in UK and "not an independent Scotland with its own policy." 3. It is NOT a measure of affordability. No country's affordability is judged on a regional snapshot inside another country. 

Why it matters now:

Under Barnett, Scotland's budget is decided by spending in England. If England spends more, Scotland gets a share. If UK pays more debt interest, Scotland is allocated a population share. GERS shows the result of that system.

In plain English:

Today is useful to understand where we are under devolution. It is useless to tell you where we would be under independence or full devo-max, because both would change the numbers completely.