THE PROMISE vs THE REALITY

We were told in 2014 that voting No was the only way to stay in the EU. David Cameron, the leaflets through the door — "the only way to keep your EU passport is vote No". Many decent folk voted No for that reason alone. Two years later Scotland voted 62% Remain and we were taken out anyway. That's the material change.

SCOTLAND VOTED REMAIN — AND WAS IGNORED

23rd June 2016. Scotland 62% Remain, 38% Leave. Every single council area — all 32, from Shetland to the Borders — voted Remain. 2.6 million Scots voted. Cost £9.8m to run in Scotland. Result ignored because England and Wales voted Leave. First time many Scots felt the democratic deficit in their gut.

HOW THEY CHANGED THE RULES AFTER

Rule 1: EU is reserved — Scotland Act 1998. Westminster decides.

Rule 2: Holyrood passed its own Continuity Bill March 2018 to keep EU standards. It was legal when passed. Westminster passed its Withdrawal Act weeks later and made it a protected statute Holyrood can't touch. Our Bill became "not law" retrospectively.

Rule 3: Internal Market Act 2020. Holyrood voted 90-28 against. Welsh said no. NI said no. Passed anyway. Means if it can be sold in England, Scotland must allow it. Deposit Return Scheme blocked because of it.

Rule 4: Supreme Court Nov 2022 — Holyrood can't even hold advisory referendum without permission. Five judges unanimous.

WHAT IT COST US

Trade: EU goods exports down 20% in real terms vs 2018. Total international down 17%. EU exports £17.1bn in 2023 but down 11% real terms since before Brexit. Fraser of Allander: £2.2bn drop. 44% firms say Brexit main reason they struggle. Shellfish lorries £600 extra per lorry.

Our young folk: Erasmus+ €26.4m (£22.7m) for 109 projects in 2020. Turing £9m for 30 projects in 2022/23 — 60% cut. Schools £379k vs £1.7m before. Unis £6.9m vs £14m before. And Turing doesn't pay for EU students to come here.

Research: Almost €300m from Horizon 2020 since 2014. Scottish Government modelling said hard Brexit could cost £9-£11bn GDP by 2030 — £1,600 per person.

WHO WAS BEHIND BREXIT?

It wasn't one person.

1. Tory Old Guard — Cash, Redwood, IDS. Since Maastricht 1992. Thinking: EU law supreme over Parliament, sovereignty offended. 2. UKIP / Leave.EU — Farage, Banks. Thinking: Borders, free movement, fishing sold out, working class ignored. 3. Vote Leave Strategists — Cummings, Johnson, Gove, Gisela Stuart. Thinking: Don't argue economics, argue emotion — "Take Back Control". £350m NHS bus was a weapon to force Remain to argue numbers. 4. Lexit Left — Benn, Corbyn circle. Thinking: EU is capitalist club blocks socialism, bans state aid.

Four groups, four different Brexits — which is why after the vote no one agreed what Brexit meant.

WHAT HOLYROOD DID AND DIDN'T DO

DID:

• Scotland's Place in Europe papers Dec 2016 — proposed Scotland stay in Single Market like Norway, EFTA/EEA. Like NI eventually got. Westminster said no, one UK one exit. • Continuity Bill March 2018 — tried to protect standards. Blocked retrospectively. • Withheld consent — 93-30 against Withdrawal Bill May 2018 (first time ever Sewel broken), 90-28 against Internal Market Act 2020. Both ignored. Bill passed anyway. • Published damage reports — main source for trade stats, Erasmus cuts.

DIDN'T

• Didn't take Sewel to court to force crisis. Supreme Court 2017 said convention political not legal, so government didn't challenge again. Critics say should have. • Didn't hold Wales alliance — Wales did deal, Scotland isolated. • No Plan B after 2022 Supreme Court loss. De facto referendum idea required 50%+1 votes, got 30% in 2024, dropped. Many Yes activists feel Holyrood good at describing problem, no route to solution — which is why this site exists.

IF WE WANTED BACK IN — THE HONEST ROUTE

No shortcut, no automatic entry, no Article 48 fudge.

1. Become independent via legal democratic vote. 2. Apply under Article 49 — needs unanimous 27 yes just to start talking. Spain says would NOT veto legal independence, WOULD veto illegal UDI. 3. Prove Copenhagen Criteria — democracy, rule of law, human rights, market economy. Scotland passes easily, laws already aligned 47 years. 4. Negotiate 35 Chapters. 5. Accession Treaty needs unanimous vote again, European Parliament majority, ratification by every national parliament — Belgium needs 7.

Realistic if friendly: 4-6 years from Independence Day. Scholars Kirsty Hughes & Tobias Lock say 3-4 years paperwork possible — fastest ever.

Costs

Euro commitment but no deadline (Sweden 1995 still not), Schengen expected but Ireland has opt-out due to Common Travel Area with UK — Scotland would almost certainly get same, no passport checks at Gretna. Fishing — Scotland negotiates as coastal state with huge waters, stronger hand than as part of UK. Budget — Denmark size pays £2-3bn net but single market 7x bigger than UK. Border with England — if Scotland in EU and England out, paperwork moves to Gretna — LSE says doesn't make independence cheaper, swaps paperwork with EU for paperwork with England — political choice.

INDEPENDENCE DOESN'T MEAN SNP FOREVER — SCOTTISH PARTIES, SCOTTISH CHOICES

SNP in government now says rejoin EU. But independence is NOT voting SNP forever. It's voting to make Holyrood sovereign so WE decide who governs. After Yes there would be constitution convention + general election. No Westminster party has automatic right to stand. They would reconstitute as Scottish parties.

SNP — Rejoin EU — Full EU membership

Scottish Greens — Rejoin EU • Climate Focus — Green transition & renewables

Scottish Labour — EFTA • Single Market Access — Norway model, workers rights

Scottish Conservatives — Independent Scotland • Own Trade Deals — Negotiate own deals worldwide

Right now we have one option imposed: Out. After independence we have 4-5 real choices and WE decide. Some want EU, some want Norway, some want own deals. In independent Scotland all options on table. Inside UK only one: Out.

FULL DISCLAIMER

ScotlandsFuture.co.uk is not party political. We are not funded by, affiliated with, or speaking for the SNP, Scottish Greens, Scottish Labour, Scottish Conservatives, or any other political party. We are an independent educational site run by Alan J Young from Bathgate, for the people of Scotland.

This is not legal advice. The Brexit deepisode pages summarise publicly available law, court judgments, and government statistics in plain language. While every effort has been made to be accurate, constitutional law and EU accession are complex and can change. You should check primary sources where linked and form your own view.

On EU rejoining: There is no automatic or fast-track route back to the EU. An independent Scotland would need to apply under Article 49 TEU, meet the Copenhagen Criteria, negotiate 35 chapters, and require unanimous agreement from all EU member states plus ratification by national parliaments. Timelines of 4-6 years are estimates by legal scholars, not guarantees. Currency, Schengen, fisheries, budget contributions and border arrangements would all be subject to negotiation. Our pages set out precedent — such as Ireland's Schengen opt-out and its Common Travel Area — but precedent is not a promise.

On costs and trade: Figures quoted are from sources cited at time of writing. Trade impacts are contested and depend on future policy.

On independence and parties: After a vote for independence, there would need to be new constitutional process and general election. No Westminster party would have automatic right to stand in independent Scotland. Future governments would be Scottish parties with Scottish manifestos. Ballot box graphics are illustrative of possible options — Rejoin EU, EFTA/EEA, or independent trade deals — not predictions or endorsements.

Sources: UK Withdrawal Acts, Scotland Act 1998, Internal Market Act 2020, Supreme Court judgments 2018 & 2022, Scottish Government Building a New Scotland papers, HMRC Overseas Trade Statistics, EU treaties. If you spot an error, tell us — we'll correct it. Last updated: August 2026